Budget Office Determines Democrats’ Spending Bill Will Nudge Deficit Higher

Budget Office Determines Democrats’ Spending Bill Will Nudge Deficit Higher

There were bright spots for Mr. Biden and his party in the budget office analysis. It confirmed that in the eyes of the congressional scorekeepers, the Democratic bill would add significantly less to deficits over a decade than the large collection of tax cuts Republicans passed under President Donald J. Trump in 2017. The budget office initially estimated that those tax cuts would add about $1.5 trillion to deficits, even as Republicans claimed their cuts would pay for themselves.

The single biggest source of revenue stems from a new 15 percent tax that would apply to corporations that report more than $1 billion in profits to shareholders but not the I.R.S. The budget office found that a tax on so-called book income would raise about $319 billion over 10 years.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat who proposed the new tax, released an analysis on Thursday morning showing that at least 70 of the largest companies in the United States would pay more as a result of the new levy. The report by Ms. Warren found that the tax would require companies such as Amazon, Facebook, FedEx, General Motors, Google, T-Mobile and Verizon to pay more to the U.S. government.

The analysis also suggests that the Democratic plan could begin to reduce budget deficits a decade from now, if provisions in the bill expire as scheduled. The bill’s tax increases are permanent, while many of its tax cuts and spending programs are set to be temporary, a move that Republicans have criticized as a budget gimmick intended to keep the overall cost down.

“Here what we’re doing is making smart long-term investments but offsetting those with tax increases,” Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “When you do that, a fully paid for, you actually reduce the deficit over the long term.”

The Infrastructure Bill at a Glance

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Transportation. The proposal would see tens of billions of dollars in new federal spending going to roads, bridges and transportation programs. Amtrak would see its biggest infusion of money since its inception, and funds would be allocated to programs intended to provide safe commutes for pedestrians.

Climate. Funding would be provided to better prepare the country to face global warming. The Forest Service would get billions of dollars to reduce the effects of wildfires. The bill includes $73 billion to modernize the nation’s electricity grid to allow it to carry renewable energy.

Resources for underserved communities. A new $2 billion grant program is expected to expand transportation projects in rural areas. The bill would also increase support for Native American communities, allotting $216 million to the Bureau of Indian Affairs for climate-resilience and adaptation efforts.

If a future Congress chose to extend those spending programs and tax cuts, though, or to make them permanent, and did not offset them with further tax increases, the bill would add significantly to deficits after a decade. Budget experts have warned of that possibility, which was also true of the Republican tax law. It set individual tax cuts to expire after 2025, even though Republicans immediately vowed to work to make them permanent.

Republicans have accused Democrats of gaming the budget rules by providing child care and health care tax credits and universal preschool that would expire but which Democrats hope will be made permanent. A new $80,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction would slip back to $10,000 for a year in 2030 before it expired the following year.

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